The Unthinkable: Is Michael van Gerwen Headed for a Shocking Decline by 2027?
Michael van Gerwen, a titan of darts, faces an unprecedented challenge. Despite a strong showing this year, projections suggest a drastic fall in his world ranking by 2027. This surprising decline, primarily due to older prize money expiring from his record and inconsistent tournament choices, could see ‘Mighty Mike’ drop out of the Netherlands’ top two players. The consequence? He might miss the World Cup of Darts and even face exclusion from the prestigious Premier League, signaling a significant “changing of the guard” in Dutch darts.
The Astonishing Projections for 2027
This year, Michael van Gerwen (MVG) appeared to be back to his formidable best at the World Cup of Darts, displaying unwavering focus throughout the tournament. Since his debut in 2013, he consistently played in the event until 2022, securing victory three times. However, he notably sat out in 2022, 2023, and 2025, citing injuries or scheduling conflicts.
Throughout his career, MVG has consistently qualified as one of the top two Dutch players, partnering with various teammates. Yet, a truly extraordinary scenario is now emerging for 2027: it seems highly likely he will no longer be among the Netherlands’ top two. This dramatic shift is primarily due to the expiration of prize money earned in 2024 from his ranking points. Consequently, MVG is projected to become only the fifth-highest ranked Dutch player, falling behind talents like Gian van Veen, Danny Noppert, Wessel Nijman, and Jermaine Wattimena.
Based on current projections for the Post-World Championship Order of Merit, he is expected to plummet to around 20th place. This projection is astonishing, given MVG’s unparalleled record: he has been in the world’s top 10 since 2012, the top 3 since 2013, and only dropped to 4th in 2026. Such a decline would be unprecedented for a player of his calibre.
A Clash of Priorities: Ranking vs. Reality
MVG himself has acknowledged the situation, stating this year that ranking tournaments are his top priority to prevent a potential fall in the rankings. The implications of such a drop have been widely discussed, with many speculating about a Premier League in 2027 without its long-standing star.
However, MVG’s actions haven’t always aligned with his stated prioritisation. He has frequently opted out of crucial ranking events, such as the Euro-Tour and PRO-Tour series, choosing instead to participate in World Series events. While he did win the World Series in Copenhagen, these events do not contribute to his world ranking. This inconsistency in his scheduling choices has drawn criticism from many within the darts community, including his close friend and fellow dart player, Vincent Van der Voort.
The World Cup Consequence and a New Era
Another significant consequence of MVG’s projected ranking slide is his likely absence from the Netherlands team for the 2027 World Cup of Darts. While his concern for this outcome remains unknown, given his recent withdrawals from previous editions of the event, it certainly marks a symbolic shift.
Interestingly, his absence may not severely weaken the Netherlands’ chances. Without him, the team reached the semi-finals in both 2022 and 2025, demonstrating their strength in depth. As it stands, the 2027 World Cup team is projected to feature Gian van Veen and Danny Noppert. Wessel Nijman is expected to be close behind, indicating that Gian van Veen and Nijman are rapidly emerging as the future top two in Dutch darts. While results over the next year could still alter these projections, the period of 2026/2027 very much feels like a definitive changing of the guard for Dutch Darts, ushering in a new generation of talent.
Source: Based on an article from Darts Planet TV.
