In a surprising turn of events on the Pro Tour, Scottish darts player Alan Soutar secured a 6-4 victory over fellow Scot Gary Anderson, despite holding a significantly lower three-dart average. This remarkable win, where Soutar averaged nearly 15 points less than Anderson, has sparked curiosity among fans, prompting questions about whether such a large ‘reverse margin’ is a new record. While not a record, it stands as one of the most notable upsets in recent darts history, highlighting that raw averages don’t always tell the whole story of a match.
Understanding Darts Averages: The Expected Outcome
In the world of professional darts, the three-dart average (3DA) is often seen as the ultimate measure of a player’s performance. Generally, the player with the higher average is expected to win the match. It’s a fundamental assumption: if you consistently score higher per visit to the board, you should reach the finish faster and secure more legs.
Consider a scenario where one player averages 95 and another 101. You’d typically bet on the 101-averaging player to win. The mathematical certainty seems to favour them overwhelmingly, especially when the difference is substantial, say, 68 versus 98. Such a gap usually implies an almost guaranteed victory for the higher scorer.
The Leicester Upset: Soutar vs. Anderson
However, darts often defies simple arithmetic. This was dramatically illustrated yesterday on the Pro Tour at PDC Players’ Championship 5 in Leicester. The match between two Scottish stalwarts, Alan Soutar and Gary Anderson, delivered a result that left many scratching their heads.
- Alan Soutar defeated Gary Anderson with a score of 6-4.
- Remarkably, Soutar achieved this victory despite his three-dart average being a significant 14.81 points lower than Anderson’s.
- This outcome challenged the conventional wisdom that a higher average dictates the match winner.
Is This a Record? Unpacking the Numbers
Such a pronounced difference in averages, coupled with the ‘lower-average’ player taking the win, immediately sent ripples across social media. Fans, always keen for a unique statistic, began asking if this was some kind of record for the biggest reverse margin between a winner and a loser.
The answer is no, it’s not a record. While certainly a rare occurrence, data compiled by DartConnect since 2018 indicates that this particular match ranks as only the 10th biggest reverse margin. It remains a fascinating anomaly, as the overwhelming majority of matches are indeed won by the player with the superior average. Yet, seasoned darts followers are well aware that exceptions exist, with players like James Wade often cited for his remarkable ability to grind out wins even when his scoring average might be lower than his opponent’s.
How Does a Lower Average Win a Darts Match?
The mathematics might baffle many, but understanding how a player can convert a lower overall average into victory reveals the true complexity and psychological depth of darts. It’s not just about hitting big scores; it’s about hitting them at the right time and, crucially, finishing effectively.
Key Factors for Winning with a Lower Average:
- Clutch Finishing: A player with a lower overall average might have a superior checkout percentage, especially under pressure. Hitting doubles when it matters most – to win a leg – is often more critical than consistent high scoring throughout. Missing fewer doubles than an opponent can swing multiple legs.
- Opponent’s Missed Opportunities: The higher-averaging player might suffer from ‘double trouble’ or periods of inconsistent scoring, particularly when attempting to close out legs. These missed opportunities hand lifelines to the opponent.
- Leg-by-Leg Consistency vs. Overall Average: Darts is played leg by leg. A player can have a few excellent legs and a few mediocre ones. If their excellent legs are perfectly timed to secure the match-winning legs, their overall average might suffer, but the match is won. Conversely, a player with a high overall average might have wasted many darts in legs they ultimately lost.
- The Mental Game: Pressure plays a huge role. The favourite, with a higher average, might feel the weight of expectation, leading to errors. The underdog, playing with less pressure, might perform more freely and capitalize on every chance.
A Testament to Tenacity
Alan Soutar’s triumph against Gary Anderson is a powerful reminder that darts is about more than just numbers on a scoreboard. It’s about resilience, strategic finishing, and capitalizing on crucial moments. While not a record, it’s a win that will undoubtedly be remembered and celebrated for its sheer defiance of the statistical odds. Well played, Alan Soutar!
Source: Based on an article from Darts Planet TV.
