Get ready for a major shake-up in the world of darts! The PDC Order of Merit, which ranks players based on prize money over a two-year period, is set for significant changes in 2026. We’re predicting big climbs for stars like Gian van Veen, Nathan Aspinall, and rising talents with little to defend, while established names such as Michael van Gerwen, Dimitri van den Bergh, and even Luke Humphries face the challenge of holding onto their high positions as large prize sums from 2024 fall off their rankings.
Understanding the PDC Order of Merit: The Two-Year Cycle
The PDC Order of Merit is essentially the ranking system for professional darts players, but it works a little differently than many other sports. Instead of points, players are ranked by the total prize money they’ve won over the past two years. This means if a player earns £100,000 on January 1st, 2025, that money stays on their ranking until January 1st, 2027.
This system introduces the crucial concept of ‘defending prize money’. For example, if a player won £110,000 at the 2024 UK Open, they must perform well at the 2026 UK Open to keep that money on their ranking. If they only reach the Last 16 in 2026 and earn £10,000, their total ranking money will drop by £100,000 (£110,000 from 2024 minus £10,000 from 2026) once the tournament concludes.
This unique mechanism means that a player’s current form, combined with how much money they have to ‘defend’ from two years prior, heavily influences their potential movement up or down the rankings. It’s a constant battle not just to win, but to maintain previous successes.
Who’s Poised for a Climb in 2026?
Some players are in an excellent position to surge up the rankings, largely because they have little or no prize money to defend from two years ago, meaning every pound they earn is a net gain.
The Newcomers: Starting from Zero
- Players like Beau Greaves, who earned a two-year PDC Tour Card via the 2025 Development Tour, start 2026 with zero ranking money. Every penny she earns will directly boost her ranking without deductions until 2028. There are 31 players in this advantageous position, and some are bound to make rapid progress.
Second-Year Surges: Building Momentum
Those who earned their Tour Cards 12 months ago also benefit significantly, as they’re now past their initial year of building a ranking base.
- Justin Hood (currently #50) and European Tour winner Niko Springer (#54) are prime examples, expected to climb significantly, much like Wessel Nijman’s impressive rise from 55th to 29th in his second year.
Top Contenders with Little to Defend
Even established players can find themselves in a strong position if their 2024 earnings were relatively low compared to their current standing.
- Luke Littler: Despite his dominant position atop the Order of Merit, Littler is only defending 33% of his massive £2.77 million prize money in 2026. Given his early exits in major tournaments in 2024 (World Matchplay, World Grand Prix, European Championship), there’s a strong chance he could extend his lead even further.
- Gian van Veen: The Dutch number one is defending an even smaller percentage – just 19.3% of his earnings. Having reached only one major quarter-final in 2024, the 23-year-old is ideally placed to challenge for the world number two spot.
- Nathan Aspinall: After a stellar 2025, “The Asp” (ranked 14th) is defending only £140k (30%). A strong major performance could easily propel him back into the world’s top 10.
- Gerwyn Price and Jonny Clayton: Both are in similar favorable positions, defending only £168k (32%) and £210k (34%) respectively. This is particularly intriguing for world number five Clayton.
Returning to Form and Ready to Climb
- Krzysztof Ratajski: Ranked 28th and defending only £98k (30%), Ratajski’s return to form suggests he could be competing for a top 16 spot by year-end. He’ll be contending with Wessel Nijman (29th, defending £100k/31%) and Dirk van Duijvenbode (30th, defending £130k/42%).
- William O’Connor: “The Magpie” (43rd) showed top 32 form in 2025 and is defending just £50k (28%). Look for him to break into the top 32 and regain automatic European Tour entry.
- James Hurrell: Ranked 48th and defending only £45k (31%), Hurrell’s strong 2025 World Darts Championship run (eliminating Stephen Bunting) indicates he could become a top 32 player in 2027 if he maintains that level.
Who Faces a Downward Slide in 2026?
Predicting players who might fall is often simpler: identify those defending large sums of prize money from their 2024 successes, especially if their current form isn’t matching that previous peak.
The Mighty Fall? Michael van Gerwen
The biggest name facing a significant drop is Michael van Gerwen. After 13 years, he’s no longer the Dutch number one, and his position in the world’s top 4, held since 2012, is now under serious threat.
- MVG is defending a substantial 69% of his prize money, primarily from reaching the finals of both the 2024 World Masters and World Matchplay.
- His form has been dipping; 2025 was his first year since 2011 without a floor event win, and he’s only won one European Tour event in each of the last three years.
- In 2024, he earned £146k on the Pro Tour, compared to just £68k in 2025. Coupled with losing £100k from the World Matchplay final, a repeat performance in 2026 could see him drop to around £500k, potentially placing him 13th in the world.
The Dreammaker’s Challenge: Dimitri Van den Bergh
Dimitri van den Bergh suffered a major fall from 11th to 25th last year. His strong 2024 campaign, which initially cushioned the blow, now comes off his ranking.
- “The Dreammaker” must defend £258,000 of his current £333,250 ranking prize money in 2026.
- With the 2025 Tour Card cut-off (64th place) being £63,750, he has only £11,000 to spare if he fails to defend his earnings. There’s a very real possibility he could lose his PDC Tour Card by the end of 2026 without a significant upturn in form.
Underperforming but High to Defend
- Ritchie Edhouse: Despite miraculously rising in 2025 due to others falling faster, Edhouse is now defending 78% of his £324k prize money, largely from his 2024 European Championship earnings. A repeat of 2025 could see him fall to around 50th place.
- Mike De Decker: Similar to Edhouse, “The Real Deal” has £120k from his 2024 World Grand Prix triumph almost matching his entire 2025 earnings of £146k. He needs a serious improvement to stay in the world’s top 32.
Familiar Faces Under Pressure
Several other well-known players are defending more than 50% of their prize money in 2026:
- Rob Cross: Defending 54%, “Voltage” fell from 4th to 20th in 2025.
- Dave Chisnall: Defending 64%, “Chizzy” dropped from 6th to 22nd.
- Peter Wright: Defending 57%, “Snakebite” slid from 12th to 31st.
Bully Boy’s Battle: Michael Smith
Michael Smith suffered a dramatic fall from world number 2 to 16th when his World Championship prize money expired, and his struggles with form and injury continued. “Bully Boy” now barely holds onto 32nd place.
- He must defend 61% (£303k) in 2026. Failure to do so could see him competing in qualifiers for European Tour events and missing out on major tournament qualification.
The End for Barney? Raymond van Barneveld
Raymond van Barneveld has consistently hovered between 29th and 36th for the past four years. Defending £246k (55%) this year, 2026 could mark the beginning of the end for the five-time world champion.
Humphries’ High Stakes: Defending the #2 Spot
Even at the top, pressure remains. World number two Luke Humphries will defend a significant £650k (55%) in 2026, including his 2024 World Matchplay and Players Championship Finals wins. With only a £250k lead over Gian van Veen, “Cool Hand Luke” needs another strong campaign to maintain his position.
The Unpredictable Darts Journey
While predicting the exact PDC Order of Merit positions for next year is impossible, forecasting the general direction of travel for players based on money defended offers fascinating insights. A year in darts can feel like a lifetime, and 2025 proved that anything is possible. The 2026 season promises to be a thrilling rollercoaster of ups and downs, as players battle not just opponents, but also the clock on their past earnings.
Source: Based on an article from Darts Planet TV.
